How Many Backlinks Do You Need? Work It Out Properly

How many backlinks do I need to rank? There’s no universal number. The real answer is your backlink gap: the difference between the referring domains pointing at your page and those pointing at the pages already ranking, adjusted for quality and site strength. It can be zero, or it can be hundreds.

The figures you’ll see quoted, like 40 links to a homepage or 300 across a site, aren’t wrong for every site. They’re just wrong for most of them, because they ignore the pages you’re competing with. The gap calculation below gives you a target you can actually budget against.

Why There’s No Single Number

Links are one ranking signal among many. Google’s own explanation of how ranking works says one of the factors it uses to judge quality is whether other prominent websites link to or refer to the content. One factor, not the only one, and its weight changes from query to query.

Google’s Gary Illyes has pushed that point further. In 2023 he said links aren’t in the top three ranking factors and that it’s possible to rank without them. In 2024 he said Google now needs very few links to rank pages. Both statements are true for some searches and misleading for others.

The data shows why. In a study of the top 1,000,000 US keywords, Ahrefs found the number of referring domains correlated with rankings more than any other link metric it tested, at 0.255, while Domain Rating sat at 0.131. The correlation was stronger for high-volume keywords, local queries and informational searches.

Commercial searches tell a similar story. A Feed The Bot study of 200 commercial phrases found that 96.3% of the 1,113 sites ranking in the top 10 had more than 1,000 referring domains. Amazon alone ranked for 164 of the 200 phrases, which shows how much big brands inflate these numbers.

Put together, the honest answer to how many backlinks do I need to rank is: it depends on the query, and on who you’re up against. That’s why the only number worth trusting is one you calculate for your own keyword and your own page.

Count Referring Domains, Not Backlinks

Before you count anything, count the right thing. A backlink total treats 200 footer links from one site the same as 200 links from 200 different sites. Google doesn’t, and neither should you. The number that matters is referring domains: how many separate websites link to the page.

That’s also where the Ahrefs data points. Referring domains correlated slightly better with rankings than raw backlink counts. When you compare your page with a competitor’s, compare unique linking sites and ignore the total, which sitewide links and repeat links from a single site can puff up.

How to Calculate Your Backlink Gap

This is the method we’d use to answer the question for any single page. You need a backlink tool with its own index, a spreadsheet and a clear idea of which page you want to rank. Work through the steps in order, because each one changes the number you end up with.

Pick One Keyword and One Page

Choose the exact keyword and the exact URL you want to rank for it. A link gap only makes sense for a page, not a whole site. If the page doesn’t exist yet, write it first, because links can’t fix a page that doesn’t match what the searcher wants.

List the Pages You Actually Need to Beat

Search the keyword and note the top ten organic results. Then remove the ones you can’t realistically compete with on links: Amazon, Wikipedia, Reddit, government sites and household brands. Their link profiles come from years of fame, and as the Ahrefs study noted, brands simply attract more links.

What’s left is your real competition, usually four to seven pages from sites closer to your size. If every result is a giant, that keyword is a poor first target no matter how many links you build, so pick a longer or more specific variation instead.

Record Page-Level Referring Domains

For each remaining page, record the referring domains pointing at that specific URL, not the whole domain. Domain totals mislead because a big site’s homepage and brand links say little about one blog post. Note each site’s domain rating in a separate column, since you’ll need it in a later step.

Use the Median, Not the Average

Take the median of the page-level figures. One page with 400 referring domains can drag an average far above what most competitors really have. The median shows what a typical ranking page on that results page looks like, which is the level you actually need to reach.

Subtract What You Already Have

Check your own page’s referring domains and subtract them from the median. The result is your raw backlink gap. If the number is zero or negative, links probably aren’t what’s holding you back, and your time is better spent on the content, the search intent match or internal links.

Adjust for Domain Strength and Link Quality

Now compare your site’s domain rating with the competitors’ median. If your domain is noticeably weaker, add a buffer of around a fifth to the gap. If it’s stronger, you can usually trim it. This is a judgment call based on how SEO tools behave, not a Google rule.

Quality works the same way. Count only links from real, relevant sites when you size the gap, and plan to match that standard. Twenty links from sites in your niche will do more than fifty from unrelated directories, so a gap measured in weak links always looks smaller than it really is.

A Worked Example

Here’s how the maths looks with illustrative numbers. Say you want to rank a guide for a mid-competition keyword. After removing a major brand from the top ten, five comparable pages are left, and your page currently has nine referring domains.

The raw gap is 36 minus 9, so 27 referring domains. Your domain rating sits ten points below the competitors’ median, so a buffer of about a fifth takes the target to roughly 33. At five good links a month, that’s a campaign of six to seven months, not a single order.

Turning the Gap Into a Timeline and Budget

Once you have a target, spread it out. Google publishes no limit on how many links a page can gain per month, but a sudden spike of links with identical anchors is exactly the kind of pattern that draws attention. A steady monthly pace also lets you see which links move the needle.

Cost depends on the niche and the quality of the sites, so price the gap before you commit to a timeline. A gap of 30 referring domains in a competitive niche can cost far more than the same gap in a quiet one. That should shape which keywords you chase first.

Then recheck the gap every quarter. The pages ranking above you keep earning links while you build yours, so the target moves. Rerunning the same steps on the same keyword shows whether you’re closing the distance or just keeping pace.

When You’ll Need Fewer Links Than the Math Says

The gap is a starting estimate, and some pages beat it. Long-tail keywords with clear intent often rank with a handful of links, or none, when the content answers the question better than anything else on the page. That’s the situation Illyes was describing when he said Google needs very few links.

Strong internal linking also shrinks the gap. A page linked prominently from your site’s most-linked pages borrows some of their strength, which is why established sites can rank new content quickly. If your homepage or best guides have plenty of links, point them at the page you’re pushing.

When You’ll Need More

Expect the real number to run higher than your estimate in three situations. The Ahrefs data found links mattered more for high-volume keywords, for informational searches and most of all for local queries, where links and referring domains correlated with rankings at 0.33.

The local finding makes sense. Service pages for plumbers or dentists in the same town often look almost identical, so links become one of the few ways to tell them apart. If you run a local business in a crowded area, plan for a bigger gap than the national numbers suggest.

FAQs